"Any government" formed by Sunni Islamists, "whatever misfortunes [they] may
visit on the Syrian poeple," would be preferable to the Assad regime,
writes Gary Gambill.
Al-Qaeda
may become the Free Syrian Army's most potent weapon against the Assad
regime, but its collaboration with rebel forces poses serious risks for
the country's future, says CFR's Ed Husain.
A
wide array of rebel groups outside of the Free Syrian Army are
cooperating against the Assad regime, but the harmony may not survive
long, writes the Economist.
Roula
Khalaf profiles Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, "the Arab world's
most notorious dictator," his unexpected rise to power, and his inner
circle of family and political allies.
Syria's
Alawite minority, a sect of Shia Islam, has been fundamental to Assad's
grip on power, writes Mideast researcher Leon Goldsmith. The privileged
group accounts for the vast majority of Syria's security and
intelligence apparatus, he says.
The
government of Syria's brittle, one-party state remains dug in against a
determined but fractured opposition. Expert Joshua Landis discusses the
fault lines in the uprising.
As
the death toll mounts in Syria, attention falls on the shadowy
paramilitary group now implicated in some of the country's worst
massacres, writes Rania Abouzeid.
International
sanctions on Syria are weakening an already fragile Syrian economy,
with the regime increasingly and unsustainably relying on Russia, Iraq,
and Iran to stay afloat, writes Samer Abboud.
The
New America Foundation's Randa Slim, who has interviewed the Syrian
opposition groups both in country and in exile, says the resistance
movement is more fragmented than ever.
A
post-Assad Syria will likely create distinct challenges for each of its
neighbors, including creating a major loss for Iran, says Michael Young
of Lebanon's Daily Star.
Ankara
has been a vanguard in pushing for regime change in Syria, but the
costs of this policy, including a Kurdish uprising in the country's
south, are becoming increasingly apparent, writes Sinan Ulgen.
Aaron
David Miller offers up a "preliminary scorecard" for the potential
winners and losers in a post-Assad Syria—the later much easier to
identify, he notes.
A
post-Assad Syria will likely inflame a festering Kurdish insurgency in
Turkey's southeast, writes David Gardner. Ankara is worried that an
emergent Kurdish state in northern Syria could try break off Turkish
territory as well.
Iran
sees the Syrian government as the front line of defense against the
United States and Israel, writes Geneive Abdo. So Tehran is sparing no
expense to help its ally fend off popular protests, she says.
If
the violence in Syria sets off unrest in its neighbor to the west,
Lebanon's "second city" Tripoli is likely to serve as ground zero,
writes Jim Muir. Tensions between Tripoli's Sunni majority and small
Alawite community have erupted into violence twice already this year.
The
deteriorating situation in Syria is putting the country's half million
Palestinian refugees and the Islamic militant group Hamas in a
precarious position, write Rod Nordland and Dalal Mawad, having to
choose between their benefactor Assad and the popular resistance.
Russia
has the chance to provide leadership while maintaining its influence in
Syria by pushing the generals Moscow helped train to oust Assad, argues
Ed Husain in this New York Times debate.
This
brief from the U.S. Institute of Peace looks at the interests,
connections, and dimensions of the Syrian unrest in the Arab Gulf
states. Several experts say that although the conflict presents Gulf
nations with an opportunity to oust an Iran-allied Assad regime, their
power to do so is limited.
The
bloody conflict in Syria has washed over into neighboring Lebanon, home
of the Shiite militant group and Assad-ally Hezbollah, explains Nick
Thompson.
The
international community must unite and compromise, writes former
UN/Arab League special envoy Kofi Annan, for a successful political
transition in Syria.
Senior
Fellows Robert Danin and Ed Husain discuss policy options on
intervening and stabilizing the immediate period after Assad's fall for
what they say has spiraled into a larger sectarian conflict.
CFR's
Richard N. Haass recommends policy alternatives to an armed
intervention or intervention with arms in Syria, including increased
economic sanctions and a fundamental recasting of UN diplomatic efforts.
The
U.S. experience in Iraq indicates that a foreign military intervention
in Syria would not have prevented the country's current bloodshed,
writes Katherine Wilkens.
Washington's
current handling of Syria contrasts sharply with its actions in the
past, writes former U.S. ambassador to Syria Richard W. Murphy. The
United States said little about the 1982 Hama crackdown, he says, and
there was no indication that Washington would intervene.
In
this Center for Preventive Action Policy Innovation Memo, Elliott
Abrams argues that the United States should work to bring down Bashar
al-Assad by isolating his regime from Syria's Alawite and business
communities.
The
United States should provide logistical support, including intelligence
and communication equipment, to the Syria rebels, writes Max Boot.
Washington, with the help of its NATO allies, should also initiate a
naval blockade off Syria's coast, he says.
Syria
is trapped on a "crumbling precipice," and regardless of how it falls,
the aftermath will mean significant risks for the United States and for
the Syrian people, says this memo written by Mideast experts at
Brookings.
A
political solution in Syria cannot, and should not, permit Assad
loyalists to retain power, writes Daniel Byman. A better option would be
for Washington and its allies to throw their support behind the Syrian
opposition more intently, he writes.
Harvard
University Professor Joseph S. Nye examines the question of military
intervention in Syria and discusses comparable circumstances in history
and the notion of "responsibility to protect."
Essential Documents
Syria: Humanitarian BulletinThe
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs released this
bulletin in August 2012 on Syria's deteriorating humanitarian situation.
This
document issued by the eleven-member Action Group in Geneva in June
2012 calls for a transitional government in Syria and the implementation
of the Annan Peace Plan.
Kofi
Annan, former Joint Special Envoy for the United Nations and the League
of Arab States, drew up this six-point peace plan for Syria. It was
submitted to the UN in March 2012 and accepted by Damascus days later.
However, it has not been honored.
The UN released this press release on February 13, 2012; it describes the statement made by UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, regarding Syria. Statements by UN delegations follow her words.
This compilation of short primary source videos, edited by J. David Goodman, presents a forceful and often shocking glimpse of the broadening conflict in Syria.
Mali has been
authoritatively identified as one of the West African transit countries through which up to 80 percent of
cocaine seized in Western Europe can be traced (p. 311).
